Prediction Games: Using Evidence and Data-based Forecasting to Pique Interest in Complex Topics and Real-world Events

Prediction games pit players against one another as they use open data and news stories to forecast the outcome of real-world events. These games, motivated by the high uptake of fantasy sports, as well as established offshoots like FantasySCOTUS, can encourage players to engage more deeply with different types of evidence and data, as well as learn about the game’s central topic.

This talk explores the basic principles of prediction games via a design exercise conducted with 24 study participants, many of whom don’t ordinarily play fantasy sports. What’s essential? Where is the elasticity? What makes a prediction game appealing? I’m presenting work done in collaboration with Gabe Dzodom and Frank Shipman at Texas A&M University.

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