From Divided We Fall
Will AI-Generated Misinformation Impact the Results of the 2024 Presidential Election?
By Hany Farid and Chris McIsaac
AI-generated misinformation will definitely impact the 2024 election, but we don’t know how significant the effect will be. AI-generated misinformation (e.g. deepfakes) includes machine-generated, human-like prose, image, audio, or video. This content manifests itself as Twitter/X bots pushing state-sponsored disinformation, fake photos of former President Trump surrounded by adoring Black voters, AI-generated robocalls in the voice of President Biden urging voters not to vote, or a bogus video of Biden misspeaking.
Generative AI has democratized access to sophisticated tools to create new content with unprecedented ease and realism. At the same time, social media has increased access to publishing content at an unprecedented scale and speed, as well as having unleashed algorithms that amplify polarizing speech. Furthermore, our society is deeply divided and untrusting of others, the media, and the government. These ingredients–not just AI–are creating a dangerous environment that threatens our social fabric and democracy.
Lessons from Abroad
We may have already seen an example of AI-generated misinformation impacting national politics. In October 2023, Slovakia saw a dramatic, last-minute shift in its presidential election. Just 48 hours before election day, the pro-NATO candidate Michal Šimečka was leading in the polls by four points. A fake audio of Šimečka claiming that he was going to rig the election spread quickly online, and two days later, the pro-Moscow candidate Robert Fico won the presidential election by five points. It is not possible to say exactly how much the fake audio led to this nine-point swing, but this incident should serve as a cautionary tale...
Hany Farid is a professor in the Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Sciences and the School of Information at UC Berkeley.
